The Amazon Fire Phone is out. It’s no longer a secret. Is it everything you were hoping it would be? Perhaps you weren’t looking at the device as a daily driver for yourself but for someone else in the family. You know, that family member who uses and loves their Kindle. Whether you were actually interested in the Amazon Fire Phone or not seems irrelevant to the big wigs at JP Morgan. Apparently they don’t see Amazon selling very many Fire Phones. In fact, they see Amazon selling very few. Lets put aside for a second that Amazon has had great success selling all of its Kindle Fire tablets, and great success selling their Amazon Fire TV, proving that there is still plenty of room in the streaming media and content market for an actual set top box that can deliver nearly all forms of media straight to your television. Yes, put aside all that, and forget that Amazon most likely has a really great chance at having the same success with the Fire Phone so that we may take a deeper look at where JP Morgan is coming from.
Let’s be clear, the pessimistic thought process of thinking Amazon’s Fire Phone sales will literally come up short seems to only be limited to its first year run. This idea comes from JP Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth, who has said that he estimates Amazon selling only two to three million units in the first year of its release. Whether that ends up holding true or not is anyone’s guess. The phone hasn’t even released yet and official orders won’t start till near the end of July, so until then, the estimates on sales are just guesswork.
However, it doesn’t take much to see that a smaller number of unit sales isn’t an estimate that’s an impossible outcome. Amazon has limited themselves to the number of sales they can ultimately do because of the fact that the Fire Phone is itself limited to one network. Its AT&T exclusivity and high price tag($199-$299 on contract and $649-$749 off)compared to other similar handsets will undoubtedly shy some consumers away. Despite these factors, the phone will eventually drop in price and we even could see it expand out to other carriers and perhaps even see an unlocked version. When and if that happens, sales for the Fire Phone will probably rise.
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